Chap! to make it official

A little birdie has told me that Chap! Petersen has decided to run for the 34th district State Senate seat, which is currently held by Jeannemarie Devolites-Davis. Petersen has been semi-publicly considering making the race over the last few months and has now decided to go for it. No word yet on when an official/public announcement would be coming, but I would guess we'll see something later this summer.

The 34th is an embarrassment of riches for Democrats, with Delegates Steve Shannon and David Bulova representing a majority of the voters in the House. Shannon was rumored to be interested in the Senate seat, but will likely focus instead on re-election in 2007 and a possible run for Attorney General in 2009 (personally, I think he'd make a great candidate based on his personal charisma and bona fides as a former prosecutor).

This seat is among the NoVa Trifecta (Cuccinelli and O'Brien included) that Senate Democrats believe are ripe for the taking. Greg Galligan will be seeking a rematch with O'Brien in the 39th, a district based around Lorton and Clifton in Fairfax county and Occoquan and Dale City in Prince William County.

The best news is that based on the district and the candidates, I would expect that Petersen starts off as a slight favorite.

In 2003, Democrat Ron Christian got 47% of the vote. In the same year, Petersen, running for re-election in a rematch against former Del. J. Rust, got 59.5% of the vote. Among the precincts they shared (almost all of Petersen’s Delegate district) Chap! got 60.5% of the vote, while Christian got 49.7%. If Chap! runs near 10% better than Ron Christian did among Chap!'s old district (which is 32% of the Senate district) and keeps Christian's percentages elsewhere, he'll win with 51%.

In 2001, Mark Warner got 54% of the vote in this district. In 2005, Time Kaine got 59%. In no precinct did Kaine get a lower percentage than Warner did. If Democrats improve by 5% over their vote four years ago, as they did between 2001 and 2005, Chap! will end up around 52%.

In 2003, Ron Christian was outspent by Devolites-Davis $280,000 to $260,000. While a small difference, this gap mirrored the final vote gap, providing a close loss for the Democrat. In that same year, Petersen not only out raised Rust ($285,000 to $208,000), he out raised Christian and Devolites-Davis. Chap! raised more money for his Delegate race than either Senate candidate raised that year. Of course, Chap! followed that up by raising just over $900,000 for his Lt. Governor campaign.

Finally, on the personal level, Petersen is known as a tireless campaigner. In his 2001 upset, he gained a reputation for knocking on more doors than other politicians thought possible, and by the end of the election, he had personally talked to enough voters to gain their confidence and votes despite being outspent $282,000 to $172,000.

On the other hand, Devolites-Davis is increasingly becoming the target of choice for hard-core anti-tax conservatives. She's stuck between her "do nothing" base and the fervent desire of swing voters to have an efficient, fair transportation solution. The upcoming special session on transportation will put her in an amazingly difficult position, especially as Cuccinelli and O'Brien are likely to stick with their base and risk their career by keeping their head in the sand.

By January of 2008, the only place to see a Northern Virginia Republican (among the State Delegation) will be Vince Callahan in McLean and the state government history books.

Potential of the Blogosphere

Ok... so here is the deal..... I haven't posted in about 3 months but I am ready to get back in the game so let me outline a little bit of what is going on here at NoVA-9 as well as a couple of things to wrap up the successes and failure of the blogs in the last cycle and moving forward.

At NoVA-9 , I am getting ready to be involved in the 2006 elections getting out information about competetive Democrats in northern Virginia. It looks like a lot like people seem to be writing off the races in the Northern Virginia but after the first quarter filings it looks like there is a lot more potential for Democratic success in NoVA. Like 2005, I see a legitimate chance for Democrats to make gains where they weren't expected to.

Since we are on the topic of the 2005 election, I would like to take this chance to talk about the way the blogs worked out and how I would like to see the blogs (specifically progressive ones) move forward as the 2006 cycle heats up.

Let's take a look first at where the blogs were absolutely successful in '05, which i like to call the building blocks. 2005 was the first chance for local blogs to make a splash. It was the local blogs that brought up news stories that other people wouldn't touch, like the Craddock scandals and the attack sites. This was a chance for the blogs to act as a true 'citizen media' and help bring interesting news up. Local blogs were also successful as a place for local activists to sahre stories and talk about 'inside baseball' and other such rumors. This helped to whip up a frenzy and creae online momentum for candidates and campaigns.

The momentum is the spot where the blogs 'failed', and by 'failed' I mean that we didn't find a way to truly capitalize on the excitement and turnout new volulnteers and donors to the process. The purpose of this site in particualr was to increase Democratic participation in competetive races that weren't being paid as much attention as I would have prefered. It was an effort that I intend to build upon for 2006. This is a chance for the online community to use the tools that we have at our disposal to leave the keyboard and get out in the communuty.

2006 will be an important election year for Democrats and we have a chance to make a difference.

Movin on and Movin Up!

I know posting has been lackluster following the elections but I have been taking some time to put a new thing together. you can see that the NoVA9 pictures have come off the side bar... this is because I am preparing to retool the blog.

Thanks for stopping by :)

TIMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMAY!

I just want to say that Tim Kaine brought it home tonight. I was a little unsure about how great his preformance would be but I was thoroughly impressed. He walked carefully through the response and tied it all back to Virginia. He used the Commonwealth as a chance to say that it can be done. That we can be bi-partisan, that we can make a diffrerence. And honestly if the speech itself didnt do it for most americans... they wouldn't have a choice because they would have been hypnotized by his magical eyebrow.

Kaine was a great choice for tonights response for a variety of reason's, not the least of which being that he is a star Democrat in a formerly solid red state. He articulated so well, as he did in the campaign, that his policies are tied to his faith. This is the first step to bringing the Democrats and the "Religious Left," as good ole James Carville and Paul Begala would call it, out of the woodwork.

This is the rhetoric that would have put more states into play in 2004 and would have carried more of the red states Democrats should have won. If the biggest winner of tonight's response is Tim Kaine, then presidential hopeful Mark WArner and the rest of the national Democrats are not far behind.

This is they type of rhetoric and strategy we need to follow in the upcoming 2006 and 2008 cycles. We can't let the Republcan Party co-opt God and steal away with elections as they have in the past few years. Thanks Timmy for putting up a good fight and reminding America that it can be done and that we shouldn't listen to the stingly partisan agenda of the right!

Bob Marshall at it again...

If you are a first time reader... you havent heard yet but... I LOVE BRUCE ROEMMELT! So here I am kicking off the 2007 Bruce for Delegate effort... Bruce do u hear me... RUN AGAIN... and here is why...

The Richmond Times Dispatch ran a story today on the VA GOP and their rift over banning anti-gay bias. Looks like Del. Bob Marshall (R- looneyville) has followed Senator Rick Santorum's (R- Vatican City) lead and has earned the new nickname Delegate Man-on-Dog. Take a look at the wonderful words of wisdom from Delegate Marshall:

Check the psychiatric manuals: People have sexual orientation toward objects and animals," said Del. Robert G. Marshall, R-Prince William. "Does this mean drag queens in the classroom? [Warner] is leaving it to us to cleeatan up the mess."

I refuse to understand how the voters can continue to send crazies like this down to Richmond while voting for great candidates like Tim Kaine. I really wonder what goes through Marshall's head before he says things like this... and more importantly... is he being whipped by his people after saying things THIS STUPID!

So Bruce Roemmelt if you are listening... START RUNNING TODAY! Get out there show us how great you are and bring it home this time. Don't let Delegate Man-on-Dog stay in Richmond!

CHANGES AHEAD!

Sorry the site has been pretty lacking lately... have been busy doing non-blog things (sad I know)...

There are big changes ahead at NoVA9 so check back in about a week!

in the meantime sign my petitio (use the comments section)

I, an interested perticipant inthe Virginia blogosphere have been involved and have come to a well reasoned conclusion that David bulova Knocke don more doors than John Mason. I have seen numbers released by both campaigns inearly october showing David buliova 3,000 doors ahead of the entire Mason campaign and hereby admit that John Mason (fuonder of the Great State of New Hampshire) could not possibly have knocked on over 160 doors a day for a month by himself. I therefore call on NLS to pay NoVA-9 $100 and .4% as wagered on October 2, 2005 on the Not Larry Sabato blog.

Thanks for checking in and I will be gettign the changes up as soon as I can breathe again!

Warner-Mania

So I was playing around on the internets today and came across the website for Mark Warner's leadership PAC Forward Together and continue to be impressed by the Governor and the people around him.

After watching the Governor absolutely dominate in the 2005 cycle I am firmly convinced that his 2008 star is on the rise. I was first impressed with his efforts stumping for HoD candidates and first encountered him at the Hilda Barg kickoff event, though Hilda did not pull it ou *tear*, Warner's influence continued to carry accross the NoVA-9 (see David Poisson for example).

The Governor is definately emerging now as a pillar of the future DEmocratic party. Pragmatic politics and true valules are starting to pull through here and I don't see how anyone can stop his momentum heading into the election cycle... It would be nice if there was a competetive Senate race in VA where he could show his influence yet again...

I must say though the national press has fallen in love with Mark Warner, and essential local press outlets like the Manchester Union Leader are starting to ramp up his appeal as well. This could well be the time we see a Virginian running for President again...